Techno-economic Analysis of Large-scale Integration of Variable Renewable Energy Sources into Myanmar's National Grid with Interconnection and Energy Storage System

Abstract

Myanmar’s abundant hydropower, solar, and wind resources present significant opportunities for a sustainable energy transition. Hydropower, with a potential capacity of 19,567 MW, currently forms the backbone of the energy strategy, though its seasonal variability necessitates improved transmission networks and planning. Solar energy, with an annual potential of 51,973.8 TWh, is increasingly utilized for both utility-scale and off-grid applications, while wind energy, with a theoretical potential of 80 TWh annually, requires further exploration. This study employs the EnergyPLAN modeling tool to analyze the techno-economic feasibility of integrating variable renewable energy sources (VRES) into Myanmar’s grid by 2030, targeting 11% of electricity generation from solar and wind. Five scenarios are examined, highlighting the role of grid flexibility solutions such as cross-border interconnections and energy storage system (ESS). Without flexibility measures, Critical Excess Electricity Production (CEEP) could reach 7.69 TWh annually. Introducing interconnections reduces CEEP to 0.57 TWh, while the combined deployment of interconnections and ESS further minimizes CEEP to 0.41 TWh and increases Exportable Excess Electricity Production (EEEP) to 7.29 TWh. These results underscore the importance of strategic investments in ESS and regional interconnections to address VRES variability, enhance grid stability, and reduce curtailment. Such measures are crucial for optimizing Myanmar’s renewable energy potential, advancing its energy transition, and reinforcing its position in the ASEAN regional energy market.